I’ve already mentioned in my prior post “The Greatest Recession” the importance of Richard Koo’s work on the balance sheet recession. Indeed, we are lucky to have this guide as we recognize the consequence, significance, and inevitable results of putting our fiscal laxity into hyperdrive.
This post is not intended to harbinger gloom and pessimism, the world will continue regardless, but these are obvious vulnerabilities that did not have to metastasize – and they ought to be stated over and over again. One of the reasons it does deserve repitition is because of the absolutely annoying mantra some American’s love to hang their hat on, the idea that we are protected by our exceptionalism.
These perfidious fiscal states thrive in an environment where misinterpretations of current economic conditions mistake an ephemeral economic trait for a furtive truth, which is capitalized on by investing – subsequent failures in theory belie the transient nature of the “truth”. These ephemeral “truths” persist in polite economic conversation and in all ages. “Don’t fight the FED” is a great example of these “truths”, another is “V-shaped recovery.” which is delivered by unelected and televised priests of the market. “The market only goes up” is another example. While the origin is debatable it is no less pernicious and dangerous for traders and investors.
Drawing from the perspectives I had last year when I wrote ‘The Greatest Recession”; I felt secure in the several bulkheads of exceptionalism that I naively believed defined America from other nations. These barriers would defend Americans from profligacy and economic ruin. Those features of exceptionalism included governance (for all its faults), business, and Main Street (the common person).
As there are three bulkheads of exceptionalism, I will be producing these thoughts in three posts. I’m not so creative to produce novelty unabated week over week – I am not a bioweapons laboratory.
Quentin Tarantino: Starting from the End
Main Street has been abducted, before World War Two – but especially thereafter – the means of this abduction has been quite obvious. That is, perception management:
As in all other areas, the changes are primarily spiritual in nature. The radio must be brought out of the stubborn emptiness of its technical limitations into the lively spiritual developments of our age. It is not possible for the radio to ignore the times. More than any other form of public expression, it has the duty to meet the needs and demands of the day. A radio that does not seek to deal with the problems of the day does not deserve to influence the broad masses. It will soon become an empty playground for technicians and intellectual experimenters. We live in the age of the masses; the masses rightly demand that they participate in the great events of the day. The radio is the most influential and important intermediary between a spiritual movement and the nation, between the idea and the people.
Joseph Geobbels – ‘The Radio as the Eight Great Power’
The idea has slipped in and out of civilization over time, relevant with the ancients, forgotten after Alaric vacationed in Rome (though, fallen out of favor well before), and then rediscovered after Gutenberg’s creation. Martin Luther used it to emancipate the minds of his time. Joseph Geobbels endeavored to use it to manage minds, not to liberate them.
The Volksempfänger radio model that Goebbel’s November Party endorsed was so cheaply made it did not need to seriously compete with other models in the market. It became a standard in households despite the fact it couldn’t get a wide range of signals, which didn’t matter since those foreign broadcasts were soon verboten. With this radio in every German’s home the radiating persuasion of model citizenry and all manner of polite conversation could emanate from a central source. People didn’t have to trouble themselves with the onerous task of discernment or books, especially since the radio announced some of those books could be written by people belonging to undesirable groups, and discernment – well, let’s just leave that to the specialists, they can be trusted – now that science is politicized.
The reason why I’m touching on this era is after it passed the radio didn’t then just disappear with it’s power rendered impotent, and it also didn’t remain in its limited state. In fact we’ve expanded the choice of consumption beyond the limits of short-term recollection.
What is limited in the present day (as it was for Geobbels), are authorities. Authorities on subjects like health, finance, governance, food, foreign policy, etc. and the arbiter of all these authorities are the hierophants of information – the news. These priests have somehow maintained relevancy in an age that abandoned their Gutenberg print for digital blogs. Agreements have been made by the owners of the digital town square, FaceBook, Twitter, etc. to use these priests as the determining sources for what constitutes a ‘truth’ in information – they are managing information. These wise decisions were made despite the errors published by ‘authorities’: WMDs, Gulf of Tonkin, and most recently, masks don’t protect against a respiratory virus (coronavirus).
Someone should tell them.
It’s persuasive that someone should guard speech when it could be false (fake news), you wouldn’t want folks getting duped and duping their friends; it is well that we should be protected from “undesirable sources of information from undesirable groups” (sound familiar?). It’s not sensible to leave people to discern for themselves what’s true in this age and what isn’t.
Though, I have trouble remembering an age, liberated in thought, which is also scoffed at by future generations as backwards and barbaric. Whereas the era’s defined by a tight control of information, are generally regarded by future generations as derelict from the progress of humanity. I’ve had this discussion with intelligent people, but it’s often believed that this time is different, we’re not those barbarians, this is the right decision, the risks are too great. Time will tell, spoiler alert – the past does too.
Main street has been abducted, the common man is not exceptional. By design he’s sedated, amused, and content. He recognizes no dangers because he’s been informed of none, or if he is informed, he finds no authority that permits validation of the concern. This is a weakness that permits thriftless economic oversight. The difference in reaction to bailouts today versus during the Great Recession of 2008 is stark and exceptional in all the wrong ways.
Like any crisis we’re reminded these exceptional responses to crisis are necessary. Three trillion dollars in emergency bailout(s), not sure about you, but we the people are definitely seeing the benefit of those emergency responses (more on this later).
Like every event, thoughts that trail from the established line of ‘authority’-news is a conspiracy theory, laughable and undesirable. It’s a shame that hydroxychloroquine has become politicized along with science (Geobbel’s would approve) that the scientific community can scarcely have a decent and honest trial on the drug without a mountebank scientist producing a finding with a process that’s devoid of the scientific method or statistical significance – but it is still reported as conclusive by an ‘authority’. Since a straight answer on how to safely treat the virus is out of the question, it’s important to note our elected executive is using hydroxychloroquine for his own treatment.
Lets see the most recent headlines, surely they aren’t attempting to manage my perception:
All I searched was hydroxychloroquine…
I’m not a medical professional, but I know how to read a scientific analysis and determine if it’s significant or conclusive. You do too, if you are literate and enjoy thinking about what you’re reading. For instance, a recent jump in the major indexes was attributed to Moderna announcing progress on a COVID-19 drug, the study included participants between the ages of 18-59, eight participants total, eight. EIGHT. A country of over 300 million and we expect a study testing results of a drug on eight people to be scientifically relevant? Statistically significant? This is insulting, you should be insulted.
Trust yourself, you have the super power of discernment, be flexible but not gullible.
In conclusion, I assent to the possibility, supported by hope, that there is a much larger contingent of my countrymen observing the dangers abound than I anticipate. With just a bit of polite scrutiny and the patronage of independent information, we could all do each other a favor in an era that’s not out for our best interests to look out for each others best interests. However, we must be alert, because the prevailing conversation that authority perpetuates is one that leads us to believe we are hopeless, we aren’t smart enough, that we need them. It’s this kind of prevailing attitude that allows for poor legislation and no guard on the public purse.